Cities for Better Health and the University of Oxford's Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences forces to model long-term impact of the Childhood Obesity Prevention Initiative (COPI)
Cities for Better Health has partnered with the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences to model the long-term impact of COPI – a three-year initiative under Cities for Better Health supporting local action in five pilot cities to create healthier environments for children living in underserved communities.
By applying Oxford’s PRIMEtime model, the research partnership will convert real-world data from COPI into long-term projections of health impacts, healthcare cost savings and broader societal benefits. This will unlock stronger evidence to support city leaders and build the case for primary prevention.
COPI is already driving change in five cities across Brazil, Canada, Japan, South Africa and Spain. Local teams are working with global partners Behavioural Insights Team and Delivery Associates to co-design, implement and evaluate evidence-based interventions for nutrition, physical activity levels and overall health and well-being.
The goal of the research partnership is clear: give cities the tools to demonstrate the full value of investing in child health and accelerate action on childhood obesity.
The PRIMEtime model, developed by Oxford researchers, is a well-established tool for estimating the long-term health and economic impacts of changes in diet and physical activity at the population level. Over the next three years, the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences will collaborate with local scientific partners in COPI to adapt the PRIMEtime model and use data collected through the initiative to project outcomes such as reduced disease burden, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and healthcare cost savings.
“We aim to use the PRIMEtime model to provide local policymakers with insights into the long-term impact of COPI and demonstrate the value of early interventions for child health, far beyond the initial COPI cities,” said Ben Amies-Cull, Principal Investigator at the University of Oxford.
Impact will be measured at both country-level and at global scale, with results published in peer-reviewed journals to ensure they can be leveraged beyond the COPI cities. Demonstrating the full benefits of COPI will help cities worldwide make more impactful and more cost-effective decisions on healthy food, active play, and early prevention.
“This partnership will equip cities to act faster, smarter and at greater scale,” said Jo Jewell, Director of Cities for Better Health. “COPI will provide decision-makers with the data and tools they need to prioritise child health in every corner of urban policy.”
The PRIMEtime model has already been used to inform policy decisions, including the UK’s sugar-sweetened beverage taxes and salt reformulation policies.
Childhood obesity affects more than 390 million children worldwide, often disproportionately impacting underserved communities. No single actor can solve this challenge alone. However, by sharing the outcomes and analysis from COPI at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals, the research partnership between the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and Cities for Better Health will empower cities around the globe to justify, implement, and sustain transformative interventions.
